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Introduction
The UAB Index of Tourism Activity has practically become the main tool of analysis of the tourism situation in Catalonia. By now, the index has experienced six editions
(in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2007) with constant improvement in its content.
The structure of the material is based on three crucial parts, the first of which is a complete and rigorous analysis of demand. This early study targets structural tendencies and patterns. The second part of the Index, which is the most important part of the publication, forecasts annual demand by means of advanced econometrical techniques and models of proven reliability. Thirdly, the analysis is completed by a broad study of the present situation, as well as the evolution of the tourism industry (by now, catering and hospitality).
The authors of the index have made a resolute decision to highlight the need for an improvement in knowledge of the tourism industry, alongside the paradox of a high degree of economic relevance and a lack of data and documents of analysis. In this sense, the Index attempts, as far as possible, to overcome the present-day situation and calls for constant improvement in the statistical data in order to provide efficient political action, which cannot be achieved without knowledge; in other words, information.
We strongly encourage all agents to keep an eye on The Index of Tourism Activity of the UAB, which will show its constant innovation in the edition of 2007.
By Juan Antonio Duro
(Study Director)
The 2007 UAB Index of Tourism Activity
The UAB Index of Tourism Activity has been compiled by a team of lecturers, researchers and collaborators from the department of Applied Economics and Business Management at The University School of Tourism and Hotel Management at La Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, overseen by the economist Juan Antonio Duro.
Tourism activity will increase by 3.9%, which is the continuation of a growth trend that commenced in 2004. These figures are drawn from the sixth edition of the UAB Index of Tourism Activity, which predicts the evolution of tourism demand and has become a classic indicator in the tourism industry.
Forecast fo Catalonia
The UAB Index of Tourism Activity shows a 3.9 increase in foreign inbound tourism for 2007; that is to say almost two points more than the increase in 2006. Therefore, the 2007 season in Catalonia seems promising with an increase in overseas tourism activity, mainly due to the economic situation of the main European outbound tourism markets (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom).
A breakdown of the contribution of each factor to this growth reveals that the 12.8% increase in real spending by foreign tourists during the period 2002-2007 can be explained by a 31.5 point increase in the number of tourists, a 14.1 reduction in average length of stay and a 4.5 drop in daily spending. In other words, if daily spending had not fallen during the last six years, total daily spending would have increased by more than 30 points, more than double the real growth figure.
This outcome, which is due to populational growth, displays the evident difficulty in Catalonia to turn an increase in inbound tourism into real spending figures, and as a result, higher revenue.
This significant growth in tourist numbers since 2004 could be more sustainable if it were spread out during the year and were present in areas with less tourism activity. In other words, to prevent significant economic imbalance, seasonal and territorial dispersion of tourism flows is required.
Nevertheless, trends from the years leading up to 2006 are far from satisfactory given that a significant dispersion of monthly demand up to 2004 appears to have come to a standstill due to the lack of success of territorial dispersion during the last few years.
Forecast for Spain
Forecasts for Spain indicate that inbound tourism figures may exceed 60 million overseas visitors; 60.7 to be exact. These figures would mean growth of 3.9%, a little less than the 4.5% in 2006. A 6.1% increase in the Italian tourism market is significant, as is the 5.9% increase in non-traditional markets and the recovery of the British market to the tune of 2.6%.
With regard to overnight hotel stays, a 5.2% increase is predicted, which is slightly lower than the figure of 6.5% in 2006. These figures suggest a slight slowdown in demand for 2007.
However, the great problem about this growth in Spain, which actually seems to sum up current analysis of the tourism situation, is that it is decreasingly converted into real spending; hence, tourism activity. In this sense, forecasts indicate a slight increase of 0.2% in real overseas tourist spending in Spain, which in terms of tourism revenue’s influence on the balance of payments may mean an increase of approximately 1%. This limited increase in comparison with expected tourist numbers should bring about a further reduction in real overseas tourist spending by 3.5%.
The whole 2007 UAB Tourism Activity Index can be downloaded here as a PDF file.
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